"I have always said that having oil and gas deposits is not our fault. It's a gift from God," Aliyev told German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue in Berlin this past April. President Ilham Aliyev.

COP29 is considered to be the “the finance COP”. The key priority is to help lower-income countries transition to zero-carbon economies, plan for sustained financing, and to considered damage funds which must come from high-income countries with high rates of fossil fuel production and consumption within an agreed upon time-frame. These funds are to be considered as grants rather than loans. As far as mitigation and adaptation It is clear that the promised 100 billion will not be enough and that around a trillion dollars is needed.

These are some of the challenges facing participants attending COP29:

At COP28, agreement was reached regarding the implementation a dedicated "loss and damage" fund. There has been a general concern, though largely unspoken, regarding liability on the part of contributors. The US , the largest producer and user offered the lowest amount.

In addition to setting a financial target, COP29 negotiators must also agree on clear timeframes for the provision of funds to lower-income more vulnerable countries. Funds should be given in the form of grants, not loans, to avoid worsening the existing debt crises these countries face.  

The compounded effects of climate change have manifested as extreme events with high costs even as the upward trend of climate change worsens. In the face of this, not only have the highest producers failed to keep the promises made at Cop 28 the increased production of fossil fuels outpaces hope of achieving the goal of 1.5 C.

As reported in The Guardian, global carbon emissions continued to increase. In 2023, 40.6 billion tons of fossil fuels were emitted. In 2024, fossil fuels hit new heights. So far around 537,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) has been emitted for every terawatt hour (TWh) of electricity produced from gas-fired power stations.

As expected, a percentage of the consumption driving high emissions is fueled in part by data centers and artificial intelligence applications as one key factor. Power firms have been forced to lift generation from fossil fuels alongside clean energy sources, despite pledges to cut reliance on fossil fuels over the longer run. This demand is expected to increase exponentially.

“We will frack, frack, frack and drill, baby, drill,” Donald Trump, October 18.

Cop 28 in Dubai was the first time an international commitment was made to tackle fossil fuels as a root cause and to more seriously address transitions to clean energy. What will be accomplished toward this end at COP29 and what are the challenges?

Cop 29 attendees must now consider the arrival of the US president-elect Donald Trump on the scene. According to the New York Times, Mr. Trump is moving ahead with plans to generally reverse US carbon cutting commitments and will again drop out of the Paris climate agreement. While the US, the world's largest oil producer, showed a modest decline in production in 2024, the views Mr. Trump has expressed do not bode well for slowing down fossil fuel production and in all likelihood will increase production by the US and abroad.

Given that this scenario is likely, and even as UN Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez describes the climate situation in terms of “humanity committing collective suicide”, the 40,000 and 50,000 delegates and UN representatives from 200 countries represent a much lower attendance figure compared to COP28.

The seriousness of this should not be underestimated. While there have been side events, conferences, and other venues surrounding climate change during this time period, the COPs are the most visible sign of continuing negotiations between countries.

With this in mind, the absence of world leaders is also notable. President Biden will not be attending . Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva whose country will host COP30, will also not be attending due to a reported head injury from a fall. China, Japan, Australia and Mexico are also absent from the latest agenda. One of the most concerning absences is that of  EU President Ursula von der Leyen. Her non-appearance has brought some concerns about Europe’s commitment to climate change goals when, with the election of the US President, Europe’s role is more important than ever.

Green Zone registration figures are unknown at the current time. However, a recent report warns that “[T]he absence of robust integrity and anti-corruption measures at COP29, has opened the door for Azerbaijan’s government to use the summit as diplomatic cover to advance its domestic oil and gas interests and secure new fossil fuel deals.” As far as protests in the green zone, Azerbaijani  citizens are already being shut out by various means as witnessed in the COP29 preparatory processes aided by Israeli surveillance technologies and Russian intelligence. .

In general, there is a sense of discouragement about the benefits COPs offer where it seems nothing changes. For instance, COP29 is being held in yet another country that depends on the production of fossil fuel. Fossil fuel makes up about half of Azerbaijan’s economy and the vast majority of its export revenues. The state-owned oil and gas company, SOCAR, is a major source of income for President Ilham Aliyev’s government. Also, Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic ranks 168th out of 180 countries on Reporters without Borders’ World Press Freedom Index.

Transitioning from fossil fuels to clean energy is too complex and delicate to allow distractions and loose commitments. The process requires specific commitments and transparency. It also demands better answers.

One COP theme is the rationalization that at least the meeting in Baku will be a steppingstone for COP30 to be held in Brazil, yet another higher fossil fuel producer.

The above depiction of the process has become a tired promise glossing over the reality that as 1.5c disappears over the horizon, whatever the claimed breakthroughs, the more recent COPs have left a trail of broken promises and have not brought enough change fast enough.

As an added note, A Reuter's reporting on the first day of COP29, November 11, shows indicates that the looming shadow of Mr. Trump, the US President-Elect, is very much present.